gilad shalit

Gilad Shalit will be released "within a week". This is good news. It sounds different than the other times.

But why is it happening now? Negotiations have faltered for more than five years. Why the sudden breakthrough?

Because the Palestinian Authority is making progress with its statehood bid at the United Nations. Hamas and Netanyahu oppose the progress at the UN. Consummating the Gilad Shalit deal is a way for them to distract attention from the statehood bid. The deal gives Hamas an opportunity to argue that its tactics--and not Fatah's--are successful. The deal gives Netanyahu an opportunity to argue that he has proved his willingness to negotiate--see, he just made a deal with Hamas!--and therefore that the PA is to blame, and not him, for lack of progress on final status negotiations.

Until September 2011, there was no room for an agreement. Hamas was happier defying Israel than turning over Shalit without getting high value Palestinian prisoners in return. Netanyahu was happier letting Shalit remain in captivity than turning over the high value Palestinian prisoners. By going to the UN, Abbas changed the political environment such that Hamas and Netanyahu were both willing to budge a little.

I hope Gilad Shalit will be released soon. I also hope that Hamas is unsuccessful in its attempt to siphon support from Fatah. I also hope that Netanyahu spends less time on hasbara and more time on statesmanship.