Why the PA is like the NFLPA

This past summer NFL owners locked out the players in pursuit of a more favorable revenue sharing arrangement. The players responded by decertifying their union. It turns out that the players union actually protects the owners in some way. As long as the union is around, the owners are safe from antitrust lawsuits.

I believe there is similar logic at work as Fatah considers disbanding the Palestinian Authority. Israeli defense officials want the PA around, because the PA channels political energy into nonviolence. Obviously the PA is not always successful in this, and whether it even tried under Arafat is debatable. But these days I think its fair to say that the PA has this effect.

To clarify, in my analogy Israelis are the owners, Palestinians are the players, and the PA is the NFLPA.

gilad shalit part 2

Some support for my previous blog post. Haaretz:

Top Hamas official Mahmoud Zahar told Army Radio on Sunday that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas "negotiated with Israel for a million years and hasn't achieved a deal like this one."

Former Netanyahu bureau chief Ari Harow writes in the Jerusalem Post:

The complex deal that has ended Gilad Schalit’s nightmare raises many difficult questions, not least its strategic wisdom. However, the agreement to bring Schalit home has brought clarity on one topic. It has answered the vehement critics of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who increasingly portray him as an obstacle to peace.

The New York Times editorial board doesn't buy that argument:

As for Mr. Netanyahu, we saw on Tuesday that the problem is not that he can’t compromise and make tough choices. It’s that he won’t.

Furthermore:

Both Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas were looking for a political win after Mr. Abbas grabbed the international spotlight — and saw his popularity soar — when he asked the United Nations last month to grant his undefined country full membership.

You heard it here first.

gilad shalit

Gilad Shalit will be released "within a week". This is good news. It sounds different than the other times.

But why is it happening now? Negotiations have faltered for more than five years. Why the sudden breakthrough?

Because the Palestinian Authority is making progress with its statehood bid at the United Nations. Hamas and Netanyahu oppose the progress at the UN. Consummating the Gilad Shalit deal is a way for them to distract attention from the statehood bid. The deal gives Hamas an opportunity to argue that its tactics--and not Fatah's--are successful. The deal gives Netanyahu an opportunity to argue that he has proved his willingness to negotiate--see, he just made a deal with Hamas!--and therefore that the PA is to blame, and not him, for lack of progress on final status negotiations.

Until September 2011, there was no room for an agreement. Hamas was happier defying Israel than turning over Shalit without getting high value Palestinian prisoners in return. Netanyahu was happier letting Shalit remain in captivity than turning over the high value Palestinian prisoners. By going to the UN, Abbas changed the political environment such that Hamas and Netanyahu were both willing to budge a little.

I hope Gilad Shalit will be released soon. I also hope that Hamas is unsuccessful in its attempt to siphon support from Fatah. I also hope that Netanyahu spends less time on hasbara and more time on statesmanship.