At first I thought maybe Netanyahu's announcement had something to do with the White House's appointment of an envoy on antisemitism. But this was an implausibly small concession for Obama to make in exchange for a settlement freeze.
On Friday the answer revealed itself:
The International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors voted 25-3 to censure Iran for developing a uranium enrichment site in secret in a motion that gained rare backing from Russia and China, which have in the past blocked attempts to isolate Iran, a trade partner for both. (Haaretz)
Why did Russia and China give this "rare backing"? Obama visited Russia and China about a week ago.
It seems likely to me that Obama and Netanyahu made a deal in May. Obama said he'd push Russia and China to support an IAEA censure of Iran over its uranium enrichment. Netanyahu said that if the IAEA censures Iran with support from Russia and China, he'd announce a settlement freeze.
A censure is just a censure and this settlement freeze is only partial (construction in progress will continue, and the freeze excludes East Jerusalem, which Israel annexed). Will the Palestinians see Netanyahu's announcement as a legitimate concession or as an empty gesture? I expect that Obama recognizes that it is a significant step for Netanyahu to take, and that his foreign policy energy will soon be focused on prodding the Palestinians to make a reciprocal concession.
I hope reports of Gilad Shalit's imminent return are true, but we've heard this tune before. Even if he does return, I am not sure that could be considered a Palestinian concession, given that Israel will probably be releasing hundreds of prisoners in exchange for Shalit.
Maybe Hamas's announcement of a deal with Gaza factions regarding rocket fire could be considered the reciprocal concession:
According to the announced deal, rocket fire will only be allowed in retaliation for Israeli military offences within the Strip. (ynet)
Will Israelis see this as a legitimate concession or as a self-interested pause allowing Hamas to prepare for the next barrage? Probably the latter.
1 comment:
This analysis makes a lot of sense -- but is there any "extrinsic" evidence to support it? Any reports of unidentified sources speaking on condition of anonymity confirming, denying, etc?
Post a Comment